Something does not add up.
The meekness of sending the dossier to 180-odd countries; so many of the barbs from the Pak-establishment being ignored, or dealt laconically; too many high-level meetings involving the Services Chiefs; sending 2 Sukhois for retrofitting; the Army not responding to the Pakistani troop movements and loud warmongering, the PM mumbling out exceptionally harsh statements; the US interlocutors of all shades seen too frequently in the neighbourhood; the ambhibious INS Jalashwa and INS Viraat both patrolling the west coast.
All this cannot be for 'putting more pressure' to Pakistan to 'comply' with its promises. The signals are muddled and work against each other. The studied underplay, the meekness of 'crying out for help' does not fit with the medium-term planning of Sukhois and warships.
Can it be that India is preparing for a limited strike at defined targets inside Pakistan and POK? The planning points towards it. The timing need not be defined by the elections - the first intuition might suggest that things will move into top gear before April. However, traditionally political parties have been united in the matters of defence - as witnessed during the 1998 testing - when all the preparation was done during the Congress government, but the testing happened under Vajpayee.
The logistics of the strikes will need at least 6 months - given the winter and the lead time required to unleash the covert links on the targets. Indian government's reaction to another attack on Indian targets would be an interesting indicator. If it is raucous then maybe there is no planned strike. If it is muted and wreathed in silence, then war is afoot.
Despite what the US may try to sell as an argument, if push comes to shove, India will not listen to US concerns about Pakistani troops shifting to the east, abandoning the war on Taliban and Osama. The argument would be, 'you take care of your interests, we will take care of ours'.
If indeed there is war, however limited, the reasoning should be reconstructible. Let's attempt it.
First big concern: will Pak press the nuclear trigger? No. The MAD scenario will not be invoked. The Pak nuclear buttons are now split and secured (under Musharraf's insistence) and while they are bunkered in the western region (nearer the Islamist armies), they are safe from being taken over. Islamist sympathiser top brass have been purged from the army and the ISI has never shown an appetite for full-blown nuclear war. Besides this, the US Navy is keeping a close watch on the bunkers from the Arabian Sea.
Well, then in the situation of a low nuclear risk, India might think thus: there is no way that Pakistan will ever be reconciled to being India-neutral, not after Bangladesh. Any peace movement will always have periods of controlled warfare, either through terrorist strikes or Kargil-like incursions. In short, it will never be like France and Germany. The only reason Pakistan can give for its existence is if it leads to the dismemberment of India. Else it does not need to exist. Thus Pakistan will always seek India's dismemberment. If that is so, can India afford it? No. Not if it wants to be part of the global leadership. Simply because the setbacks caused by Pak strikes would never give it the legitimacy of a leader and it will always be seen as an economic risk by investors.
Containment is not going to help because, as we have seen, even a limited, once in a year strike can swing the sentiment away. Besides, instability in Kashmir and North-east, Telangana and Naxal-zones will not be options anymore. They will need to go.
Sooner or later, India will need to undertake this job of relieving Pakistan of its army, the ISI and hence, of its islamists. This cannot be done only though warfare. It can be done and sustained through building institutions, civilian rule, shared civilian-army control on the nuclear button and economic revival. All are long term factors.
Making Pakistan smaller is an active thought with India - it has succeeded before and hence may think that it can do it again. Separating Sindh (or parts of Sindh) will mean a lesser sized territory to handle. Balochistan could be next. In other words, its the Punjabi army and ISI that is the enemy; it is that which needs to be defeated. These are again long and strategic activities - we can see them slowly unfurling over the next 15 years.
But why is India planning to strike now? It can only be one thing - a rehearsal. India wants to test the waters before unleashing the grand plan. The brief incursion of Indian fighter jets can be explained only if we assume that it was done to check the scramble-times and the counter-strike readiness of Pak jets.
By doing a quick strike, say on a Lashkar camp and on JuD HQ, India will know the extent to which Pakistan will engage them militarily. Under the current economic conditions the world will stop Pakistan from a revenge strike. India has the advantage of not carrying a begging bowl. Far from it - it may be the only economic oasis in the free world in 2009 and 2010.
If this is the way then we will see a sustained effort from India to keep the post 26/11 situation warm. It will remove embassy staff, gradually withdraw from trade, cut air-links, shut roads. India will do so based on the timetable of the planned strikes. All this will be to ensure that the 26/11 situation is not allowed to cool despite conciliatory gestures (and even actions) by Pak.
So all portends to a grim 2009.
Thursday 15 January, 2009
28th Nov
The US offices are closed for Thanksgiving, hence not many mails. The presentation can wait. There is some attendance at work - maybe 30%? The canteen is on and I have already got my morning cuppa and idli. I was bewildered yesterday, and when I left work, a little sad. Today I am writhing in anger. And I want to spew venom here on this blog. Its an impotent attempt at doing something. The news coverage is annoying the hell out of me - everybody seems to be speaking loudly and with no coherence. I don't feel comforted. The PM said something in a weak, whiny voice that set my blood boiling. So I won't get into that.
I got an auto to come here and there are buses plying as well. When I entered, there were armed policemen in the van in front of the SEEPZ gate today. They looked just as lazy and unkempt as always. Who would trust them to save their lives? I won't. I would run; or maybe in a mad, blind run, choose to attack those who wish to harm me. I would be dead in the most likely scenario.
Back to the screen - there is smoke billowing out of the front of Taj now - must be some botched attempt at rescue, or maybe the chaps inside are lighting all the furnishings? I remember going up to the top-floor suite once to visit a rich American cousin. The room was tiny, the roof was low, the bed was huge, the doors were narrow, the bathroom was shiny but without any character. I remember the curtains were thick and ugly and had three layers. The upholstery everywhere was soft. So it must be an arsonist's delight, this Taj.
The three police honchos who died yesterday - I can see repeat pictures of them and can't help wondering - why the heck did three top guys need to go in the same jeep? I'm familiar with Karkare's name, and the little bit of the Malegaon thing; he seemed to be a smart guy, with his wits about him. I bet his last thoughts must have been, 'fuck, what a chutiya I am to die like this!' And did you look at his helmet? And his tiny, frayed flak-jacket? In fact, even as I write I can see more policemen in front of the Taj barricades; none are in flak-jackets, and two are bare-headed. Why do we have jokers to protect us? We in India are not that poor, surely?
More news pouring in - all are condemning the attack, rah rah, and we have a grim faced Pranab saying something that seems to be in English. But then I am illiterate in that version of the lingo. I am not interested in his bakwas. I'm curious at this stage to know what happened to the hundreds who were caught at CST. No update yet on that. Perhaps the crowd that was caught in the crossfire was not as glamorous as this crowd. Or maybe the killing ended too soon and there is nothing else to report from the 'scene'.
Its lunch. I'm hungry.
I got an auto to come here and there are buses plying as well. When I entered, there were armed policemen in the van in front of the SEEPZ gate today. They looked just as lazy and unkempt as always. Who would trust them to save their lives? I won't. I would run; or maybe in a mad, blind run, choose to attack those who wish to harm me. I would be dead in the most likely scenario.
Back to the screen - there is smoke billowing out of the front of Taj now - must be some botched attempt at rescue, or maybe the chaps inside are lighting all the furnishings? I remember going up to the top-floor suite once to visit a rich American cousin. The room was tiny, the roof was low, the bed was huge, the doors were narrow, the bathroom was shiny but without any character. I remember the curtains were thick and ugly and had three layers. The upholstery everywhere was soft. So it must be an arsonist's delight, this Taj.
The three police honchos who died yesterday - I can see repeat pictures of them and can't help wondering - why the heck did three top guys need to go in the same jeep? I'm familiar with Karkare's name, and the little bit of the Malegaon thing; he seemed to be a smart guy, with his wits about him. I bet his last thoughts must have been, 'fuck, what a chutiya I am to die like this!' And did you look at his helmet? And his tiny, frayed flak-jacket? In fact, even as I write I can see more policemen in front of the Taj barricades; none are in flak-jackets, and two are bare-headed. Why do we have jokers to protect us? We in India are not that poor, surely?
More news pouring in - all are condemning the attack, rah rah, and we have a grim faced Pranab saying something that seems to be in English. But then I am illiterate in that version of the lingo. I am not interested in his bakwas. I'm curious at this stage to know what happened to the hundreds who were caught at CST. No update yet on that. Perhaps the crowd that was caught in the crossfire was not as glamorous as this crowd. Or maybe the killing ended too soon and there is nothing else to report from the 'scene'.
Its lunch. I'm hungry.
27th Nov
I am at work right now. I have logged on to the online IBN CNN news channel - the volume has been tuned down, and I keep checking on what's being shown every few minutes. I'm not really interested in finishing the presentation slide that I started yesterday. I don't care if the deadline is tonight. I'm caught in the scenes of unfolding terror, I can hear random bullets being fired and an occasional bang, maybe of a grenade? Is this Mumbai, my Mumbai, or is this West Bank, or Fallujah, or Chechnya, or Karanchi?
I stepped out a while back - and all is as usual here in Andheri East. A couple of police vans on the door, and maybe a lesser traffic, one can't be sure. The vada - pav guys is doing brisk business, the paal-wala has a line of three people, the new-vendor's stall is missing, but the nariyal-pani stall has a person eating the 'malaai'. I can see a small jam ahead of me near the Rolta building and there are idle pedestrians all over. No one seems to be in any hurry or in any concern of what is happening in deep south of the city. I don't feel any urgency either - it might be happening in another country, anywhere. This is puzzling.
I am back in my cabin, the news is just as before - more shots, more smoke, more screeching news from frenzied reporters. It seems I have entered a dark, mad world again. I am glued. The fear is returning, I can feel the heartbeat thumping against the rib-cage. I abandon all pretence of work.
It seems there is a gun-fight now at Nariman House as well. However on the screen I can see two stray dogs in front of the house and hardly any NSG guys - in fact none; just some slovenly policemen and a bearded gent in white. It seems there won't be any more cricket either. Once England wakes up we'll know for certain. Anyway it was a 5-0 bluewash. I am hungry and need sustenance.
Every now and then I can see the first pictures of the terrorists - a chap in a blue duffel bag, short and stocky carrying an automatic in his right hand, face with one streak of what seems blood. The picture has done something to the eyes - they seem to be glowing - like the obsessed girl in Exorcist. I feel uncomfortable looking at the picture. The platform is empty - they have killed everybody on it? The air conditioning is making me shiver. I want to go home now.
I stepped out a while back - and all is as usual here in Andheri East. A couple of police vans on the door, and maybe a lesser traffic, one can't be sure. The vada - pav guys is doing brisk business, the paal-wala has a line of three people, the new-vendor's stall is missing, but the nariyal-pani stall has a person eating the 'malaai'. I can see a small jam ahead of me near the Rolta building and there are idle pedestrians all over. No one seems to be in any hurry or in any concern of what is happening in deep south of the city. I don't feel any urgency either - it might be happening in another country, anywhere. This is puzzling.
I am back in my cabin, the news is just as before - more shots, more smoke, more screeching news from frenzied reporters. It seems I have entered a dark, mad world again. I am glued. The fear is returning, I can feel the heartbeat thumping against the rib-cage. I abandon all pretence of work.
It seems there is a gun-fight now at Nariman House as well. However on the screen I can see two stray dogs in front of the house and hardly any NSG guys - in fact none; just some slovenly policemen and a bearded gent in white. It seems there won't be any more cricket either. Once England wakes up we'll know for certain. Anyway it was a 5-0 bluewash. I am hungry and need sustenance.
Every now and then I can see the first pictures of the terrorists - a chap in a blue duffel bag, short and stocky carrying an automatic in his right hand, face with one streak of what seems blood. The picture has done something to the eyes - they seem to be glowing - like the obsessed girl in Exorcist. I feel uncomfortable looking at the picture. The platform is empty - they have killed everybody on it? The air conditioning is making me shiver. I want to go home now.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
